Regional Context

Context of natural resource scarcity and conflict

Pressure on natural resources is increasing due to factors such as misuse of natural resources, high population growth, migratory movements, but also Climate Change (CC). These factors reduce the possibilities for sustainable development and increase the risk of conflict. The competitive exploitation of natural resources easily leads to conflicts at all levels of governance: community, local, national, sub-regional and regional. In this current state, these risks are exacerbated by the adverse effects of CC impacts in Sahelian countries in general and in Chad, Mali and Niger in particular. They form a vicious circle (conflicts and insecurity feed on the competitive exploitation of natural resources, which are also affected by the harmful effects of CC).

Policy makers, the media and academics are increasingly interested in the interdependencies between the Nexus water-energy-food sectors, which are particularly crucial in Africa's river basins and which are also considered among the most vulnerable to CC impacts. These and other factors, such as land-use change and increasing urbanisation, will affect water, energy and food security, as well as economic development and ecosystem health. The WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM, warned that the failure to adapt to CCs and water crises in general are the main risks facing the world. Similarly, the security implications of climate change have also been addressed in the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as it exacerbates conflict drivers by exacerbating existing fragilities within societies, straining weak institutions, reshaping power relations and jeopardising post-conflict recovery and peacebuilding.

Thus, in the coming years, competition between bulk water supply and agriculture (the largest user of water) will increase, followed by competition for water between agriculture and energy. Competition between water and energy is also expected to intensify. This growing competition and perceptions of insecurity motivate the need for trade-offs and synergies between water, energy and agriculture. The concept of the Water-Energy-Food Security nexus (WEF Nexus) provides a means by which actors can achieve more economically efficient, socially equitable and environmentally sound outcomes for all three sectors.

Global climate change – an environmental conflict multiplier or process for triggering cooperation?

The Sahel region has experienced a deterioration of its security situation over the last decade with a rise in armed conflict, rebel groups and terrorism. Access to natural resources is one of the factors that plays a major role in tensions between communities. In parallel, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has declared the Sahel one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change worldwide. With a rapidly growing population, currently estimated at more than 150 million inhabitants, whose revenues depend mainly on agriculture and livestock, Sahelian countries face growing pressures on water, land and energy resources, exacerbated by climate change and leading to competition and conflict between different user groups. Furthermore, sectorial projects addressing conflict and instability and strengthening climate resilient development sometimes have unintended negative effects, deteriorating the security situation even further. In interdependent and complex constellations reinforced by climate change and other stressors, resources scarcity, competition over resources, conflict and instability mutually reinforce each other and form a vicious cycle.

The inland delta of the Niger River is selected for the implementation of the project in Mali. This area covers an area of 64,000 km2. It is the intermediate part of the river where it divides into several arms before resuming its normal course. It extends from the Djenné circle in the Mopti region to Timbuktu. It is reputed to be the largest wetland in West Africa. The inland delta is considered to be a concentration area for more than two million people and provides up to 15% of the country's cereal products, 80% of its fish production and about 90% of its livestock. The combination of this population and high production puts further pressure on the inland delta, which is already being degraded by the effects of climate change.

Increasingly, the pressures on the delta are embedded in a difficult socio-political context. Violent conflicts are now a daily reality in Mali, particularly in the central regions (Segou and Mopti) and especially in the inner delta. The Government of Mali recognises the links between the management of natural resources, the increase in community conflicts, the intervention of terrorist groups and the emergence of militias.

In order to contain this situation, the Inner Delta is now the focus of several development projects and programmes. These actions are developed by state bodies, international organisations, NGOs, etc.

The Niger Basin encompasses nine West African countries in the catchment area of the Niger River, the third longest river in Africa. The waters of the Niger River and its tributaries originate from the high rainfall of the eastern Guinea Highlands, crossing country lines and forming a boomerang shape as the Niger ‘bends’ in Mali before flowing south into the sea at the Gulf of Guinea in Nigeria. The landscape and climate is diverse, containing mountains, moist forests, savannahs and wetlands and features large ranges in rainfall depending on the season and climatic area.

Why are WEF Nexus solutions needed for peace security in the Sahel region?

The vicious cycle of scarcity, competition, conflict and instability can be turned into a virtuous cycle of resilience, sustainable resources management, cooperation and security. This can be achieved by providing people, communities, countries and regions with means to mitigate current potential negative impacts of resources use by one group or sector on another while considering the impacts of climate change. A cross sectoral and integrated approach in the areas of development and security will create and foster new opportunities ensuring sustainable development and peace in the long term.

A Nexus approach entails considering the totality of the available sources for food, energy and water security and planning holistically how they can most efficiently together serve human and conservation needs. Taking a Nexus approach to resource use and project planning in a basin allows to 1) avoid undesired impacts on other sectors and conflicts between them, and 2) improve efficiency in use of natural resources for human livelihoods ensuring ecosystem conservation. The involvement of the three sectors takes place on an equal footing and the intersectoral discussion of relevant issues and joint development of solutions leads to win-win solutions or (where this is not possible) at least to jointly accepted trade-offs.

It pursues an integrated and NEXUS-based approach that will be applied to counter negative spirals of resource scarcity and conflicts and, instead, establish climate resilient development opportunities. Frexus focuses on local communities and is dedicated towards the inclusion of the security stakeholders and the most vulnerable parts of the population, especially women.

Achievements

A deepened understanding of social and environmental factors in fragile areas

Since its start in 2019, the Frexus project has aimed to establish climate resilient development opportunities to help counter negative spirals of resource scarcity and conflicts.

An overview of the project activities and major achievements is presented in the Frexus booklet.

The core achievements of the Frexus project include: