Research Article // Water–food–energy nexus pathways in the Nile river basin under climate change uncertainty
By Hamdy Elsayed et al. Managing the Water, Food and Energy (WFE) nexus in transboundary rivers like the Nile is challenging due to inter-sectoral complexity, socio-economic developments and uncertain future climate conditions. This article assesses the long-term WFE impacts under a changing climate by employing an integrated System Dynamics model for the Nile basin.
Abstract
Managing the Water, Food and Energy (WFE) nexus in transboundary rivers like the Nile is challenging due to inter-sectoral complexity, socio-economic developments and uncertain future climate conditions. We assess the long-term WFE impacts under a changing climate by employing an integrated System Dynamics model for the Nile basin. Our results suggest that climate change impacts may exceed those of planned infrastructure alone.
Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, average annual river discharges will reduce by 8%, while under RCP 8.5, the range varies between 39% and +30%. Importantly, improved agricultural produc tivity could mitigate climate change impacts, increasing basin-wide food production by over 60%. Planned hydropower projects, projected to add 35 ± 4.1 TWh/year without considering climate change, may vary by +24% to 40% under climate change scenarios. Cooperative implementation of the WFE nexus approach pre sents an opportunity to reduce regional conflicts and improve resource sustainability through mutually beneficial policies and solutions.
Published
01 June 2026
In
Environmental Modelling and Software
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Water-food-energy nexus pathways in the Nile river basin under climate change uncertainty