29 авг. 2017
Nexus Modelling // Model Use in WEF Nexus Analysis: a Review of Issues
By Bruce A. McCarl, Yingqian Yang, Kurt Schwabe, Bernard A. Engel, Alam Hossain Mondal, Claudia Ringler, Efstratios N. Pistikopoulos. Water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus analysis endeavors are relatively new. Modeling systems are just evolving and there are challenges that arise in performing high-quality analysis. We discuss many of these.
Nexus modeling must represent and describe complex interrelationships among WEF systems. Modeling is a necessity as the nexus approach is about widening perspectives to unexplored levels. Nexus analysis systems must consider situations that vary from place to place and over time while integrating a family of models that address various components. Challenges arise in representing an appropriate geographic region while encompassing the relevant WEF using/producing activities along with heterogeneous, situation-specific, component interrelationships in a manner that supports decisions. Accounting for uncertainty and the evolution of population along with changes in biophysical, socioeconomic, economic, and climatic elements over time further compounds the challenge. In addition, challenges arise when one needs to describe previously unimplemented strategies both now and into an uncertain future represented by climate change, population growth, and other interacting forces. Comprehensive studies are needed to address these challenges and show the value of WEF nexus analysis. This paper addresses modeling-related challenges that arise when considering how to perform informative and accurate WEF nexus analyses.