Modelling and Assessment

Publication // Hydrologic and Agricultural Earth Observations and Modeling for the Water-Food Nexus

By McNally, A., McCartney, S., Ruane, A. C., Mladenova, I. E., Whitcraft, A. K., Becker-Reshef, I., Bolten, J. D., Peters-Lidard, Christa D., Rosenzweig, C. & Schollaert Uz, S. (2019). Earth observations can provide a great aid in strengthening the water, energy and food security Nexus. This article describes various examples in the field, such as crop monitoring and water stress assessments offering insights into the advantages of the approach. This is an exerpt of the original article, which can be accessed below.

In a globalizing and rapidly-developing world, reliable, sustainable access to water and food are inextricably linked to each other and basic human rights. Achieving security and sustainability in both requires recognition of these linkages, as well as continued innovations in both science and policy. We present case studies of how Earth observations are being used in applications at the nexus of water and food security: crop monitoring in support of G20 global market assessments, water stress early warning for USAID, soil moisture monitoring for USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, and identifying food security vulnerabilities for climate change assessments for the UN and the UK international development agency.

These case studies demonstrate that Earth observations are essential for providing the data and scalability to monitor relevant indicators across space and time, as well as understanding agriculture, the hydrological cycle, and the water-food nexus. The described projects follow the guidelines for co-developing useable knowledge for sustainable development policy. We show how working closely with stakeholders is essential for transforming NASA Earth observations into accurate, timely, and relevant information for water-food nexus decision support. We conclude with recommendations for continued efforts in using Earth observations for addressing the water-food nexus and the need to incorporate the role of energy for improved food and water security assessments.

The following case studies provide real-world examples of scientists and end-users following the guidelines for co-developing useable knowledge for sustainable development (Clark et al., 2016), in the context of food and water security. The sustained partnerships with decision makers allow us, as EO researchers, to continuously provide state-of-the-art products that stakeholders deem accurate, credible, and legitimate, and thus support decision-making and policy. The extent to which end-users adopt a water-food nexus approach will guide their information requests and, in turn, the products that EO scientists provide. Beyond the direct stakeholders these data are made publicly available which enhances transparency, and potential for innovations from the broader water-food nexus community of researchers and policy makers. The case studies largely ignore the energy component of food and water security. In the paper's conclusions we discuss how greater consideration of energy could strengthen EO's role in food and water decision-making.

Key messages

These case studies demonstrate how EO are being used to assess water and food security outcomes, and designed to meet needs of analysts who work within larger decision-making contexts related to the water-food nexus. These projects work closely with stakeholders to ensure that current and future products support relevant decision-making. To summarize:

(1) GEOGLAM formed in response to a demand from G20 to provide agricultural relevant information from EO. Within this broader context, national and regional experts convene to reach consensus regarding the interpretation of EO and agricultural outcomes. Evaluations of requirements and EO's capability to meet them is an ongoing process undertaken in the broader GEOGLAM context (Whitcraft et al., 2015b). From initial success and lessons learned, this framework has been adapted to meet new demands from new partners including the Crop Monitor for Early Warning and National Level monitors. For example, new efforts will incorporate new EO that better represent irrigation, which is a requirement for addressing the food-water-energy nexus.

(2) The FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) and associated water stress products were developed in response to demand from USAID and FEWS NET to address the linkage between food security and water availability. These data are used within the broader context of food access, utilization, and stability. There is ongoing feedback and learning from partner scientists regarding how to best communicate the relationship between water availability, food security, and the water-food nexus.

(3) USDA-FAS soil water modeling was developed in response to demand from USDA-FAS to address errors in near real-time satellite derived precipitation products. These data are used in the broader context improving US agriculture export opportunities and global food security. Success can be attributed to, and lesson's learned from NASA scientist's willingness to work within the USDA system to easily meet FAS analysts' needs, as well as providing support as technology advances (e.g., SMOS to SMAP, and SMAP improvements in spatial resolution and latency). This partnership allows for the co-production of state-of-the-art, usable soil moisture information.

(4) AgMIP developed an assessment of vulnerable farming systems to meet the needs of the UK Department for International Development and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change's request for information on the adaptation and mitigation costs related to global warming. These cases fit within AgMIP's broader context of providing enhanced community organization around systematic intercomparison and stakeholder-driven applications of agricultural models to address food security. Moreover, AgMIP's global network of agricultural specialists that inform modeling efforts improve the quality and legitimacy of project results.

A commonality across these case studies is that they are all constrained by EO capabilities and uncertainties. With these constraints, EO data producers are transparent about what the models represent (e.g., natural streamflow vs. streamflow subject to impoundments and abstractions), model uncertainties (from model physics, parameters, and quality of inputs) and accuracy of remotely sensed products. For example, the accuracy of rainfall estimates may be contingent upon the extent to which satellite products have been calibrated to ground-based observations and the spatial distribution of these observations. Additional uncertainty is introduced when future climate scenarios are coupled with hydrologic and crop models.

Published

March 2019

By

© 2019 McNally, McCartney, Ruane, Mladenova, Whitcraft, Becker-Reshef, Bolten, Peters-Lidard, Rosenzweig and Uz.

Access

McNally, A., McCartney, S., Ruane, A. C., Mladenova, I. E., Whitcraft, A. K., Becker-Reshef, I., Bolten, J. D., Peters-Lidard, Christa D., Rosenzweig, C. & Schollaert Uz, S. (2019). Hydrologic and Agricultural Earth Observations and Modeling for the Water-Food Nexus.

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